Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.