How The Strange Campaign Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Formula.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.
Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.
However this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.
This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.
The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.
In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.
Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.
After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still