From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.