Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data
The mean figure of daily killings monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government figures. But, security experts have cautioned that murder data could fail to point to enhanced national safety.
Notable Reduction in Daily Averages
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The figures in murders that we’ve had in these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the lowest number of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.
Recent Background and Official Strategy
Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings this year.
At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.”
The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
- Increased cooperation between various agencies.
Analyst Caution and Data Limitations
But, public safety analysts urged caution that using homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.
“It would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”
As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.
“Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may obscure periods when there were notably high numbers of murders.
“Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.
Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success
An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger
Yet despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.
“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.