Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
